We're about to kick the boat blog into higher gear as we're finishing up last minute preparations for our departure on Weds. More on that in a future post, but the boat is in great shape, the most major item being a somewhat last minute addition of a pole and the hardware and equipment configuration that requires. Otherwise, my focus has been on dialing in personal gear to stand up to the elements (cold and hot) and ease of onboard routines, provisioning (with our last trip for the most perishable items the day before we set off), taking care of personal items (emergency lists, work to be finished up), and, of course, monitoring the weather.
We've been keeping an eye on the weather and downloading model updates twice a day from as soon as they were available. For the GFS, that's 16 days out, and for the ECMWF, that's 10 days. Having access to data doesn't mean that it's in any way reliable that far out. The first forecasts were tantalizing, showing strong wind at the start, a stable Pacific High, and good consistent wind throughout the course. That has changed many times over the past week as it's bound to do. We've kept an eye on low pressure systems moving east in Alaskan latitudes and a potential tropical storm that threatened to move through the course (and as of now is no longer predicted to appear).
As of now, we are watching for possible lighter winds at the start, which wouldn't be great for a heavier displacement boat. The synoptic scale models might under represent land effects -- we will get a much better view from the higher resolution models like HRRR and PWG 24 hours out from the start. There is also a question as to where the H will settle and how consolidated it will be. Yesterday evening's run showed a large wind hole in the middle of the course, that filled in in front of us. This morning's runs show a much more consolidated H and steadier wind throughout the course, a positive sign.
Starting soon, we will have a lot more models to look at, and will also be able to start comparing the ECMWF ensemble models to see how consolidated the routing is for each component model to the ECMWF forecast. Consolidated routing means more convergence and agreement within the component models, divergent routing means that there may not yet be agreement on the conditions and the headline model is more of an average of disagreeing inputs.
One of our goals for this blog is to not only give technical updates or share the news of the day, but to also try to convey the mindset of what it feels like to be setting of on such a great adventure -- more to come soon.
T-5 days!
-david
